The Morning Call Podcast – Nov 2016
OPEC woes, Aussie housing slows and Kiwi Dollar Grows
Wednesday 30th November, 2016
OPEC meets today but will they reach a deal? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril suggests to Phil Dobbie that even a small deal could have a marked impact on the price of oil which is showing enormous elasticity either way. We also hear about yesterday’s less than optimistic outlook for Aussie housing and reflect on the strength of the New Zealand economy. Plus, US inflation figures out today.
US Takes a Breather With All Eyes on Europe
Tuesday November 29th, 2016
It seems everything from yesterday is in reverse: US stocks have fallen (slightly), oil is back on the climb and the pound is falling. Maybe the events in Europe are taking attention away from Donald Trump for a while, in particular prospects for the Italian banking sector, as Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Ray Attrill.
An Uncertain Week for Oil Prices and Europe’s Future
Monday November 28th, 2016
Oil prices, of course, have a massive bearing on the rate of inflation throughout the world. That’s why the outcome of OPEC talks this week are crucial. Meanwhile, we’re just a week away from the re-reun of the Austrian election and the Italian constitutional referendum, both of which could set the path for far right parties to claim power and jeopardise the future of the European Union. So, a pretty important week ahead.
No Thanksgiving for Europe or Emerging Markets
Friday November 25th, 2016
The US dollar has been fairly flat overnight, but it’s risen a lot this month. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explains to Phil Dobbie, this is placing a lot of pressure on emerging markets. Conversely, it could help lift inflation in Japan, but probably not soon enough to show in today’s CPI figures. And a gloomy outlook overnight from the European Central Bank raises questions of any early tapering next year.
Positive data pushes US bond yields and dollar even higher, the Yuan lower
Thursday 24th November, 2016
A rebound in durable goods orders and heightened consumer confidence, blended with Trump euphoria, has pushed the US dollar and bond yields higher yet. As NAB’s Ray Attrill explains to Phil Dobbie it’s also weakening the Chinese Yuan, which could have flow on effects for Australia. That’s the last thing we need with lower than expected construction figures potentially signalling a weakening growth rate. Could our Q3 GDP fall in to negative territory?
Chris Kent talks it up whilst Trump closes doors
Wednesday November 23rd, 2016
Chris Kent, Chief Economist at the RBA, talked up the strength of the Aussie economy at an economists’ dinner last night, thanks to the rise in commodity prices. Meanwhile Donald Trump has made it clear he will not renege on his plan to abandon the Trans Pacific Partnership, saying he will cancel it on his first day in office. Meanwhile, the pound loses ground as the optimism around a transitional Brexit of yesterday might not even have lasted out the day.
S&P breaks ceiling on oil spike. UK looks for big spending and softer Brexit
Tuesday 22nd November 2016
The S&P 500 hit a new high overnight, largely because of a spike in oil prices as Vladimir Putin steps in and says he expects OPEC to reach a deal next week, and agreeing to limit production in Russia. Getting that sense of déjà vu? Meanwhile, the pound has risen by one percent on the back of soft Brexit talks from Theresa May and speculation that Chancellor Hammond will spend big in his Autumn statement tomorrow.
US Bonds and the Aussie Dollar – a reaction or a trend?
Monday 21st November, 2016
US bond prices have dipped significantly since Trump’s surprise election victory. On this morning’s podcast Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether we can expect them to bounce back, or stay where they are? Similarly, the Aussie dollar, which is heading down to 70 cents, is this a short-term reaction or the sign of something deeper? We also look at two possible disruptions in Europe – the Italian referendum and Austrian elections, both two weeks away.
Yellen almost pushes the go button whilst Brits continue to defy gravity
Friday November 18th, 2016
Janet Yellen came as close as she could to declaring a December rate hike, whilst there are more signs that the US economy is doing well. As NAB’s Tapas Strickland explains to Phil Dobbie, new data shows jobless claims are the lowest in 42 years. Meanwhile Britain continues to defy gravity with strong retail sales, but an expensive lack-of-plan for Brexit could be just around the corner.
US Dollar Hits High, Markets Take Stock of Trump
Thursday 17th November 2016
The US dollar reached a 13 year high overnight with the December rate hike almost written in concrete. Meanwhile, Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David De Garis whether an otherwise quiet day’s trading suggests the markets are taking stock of the Trump presidency – will he be good news or not?
Australia’s buffers, the new mediocrity and Britain’s Brexit plan
Wednesday 16th November, 2016
On today’s podcast NAB’s David De Garis talks to Phil Dobbie about the IMF’s Consultation Report on Australia and RBA Governor Philip Lowe’s talk in Melbourne last night. Plus the leaked memo that outlines the UK’s plan for Brexit … any guesses?
Massive bonds sell-off continues, plus words from Philip Lowe
Tuesday November 15th, 2016
On today’s edition Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about the continued Bond sell-off amidst speculation on the inflationary impact of a Trump Presidency, plus the near certain increase in US interest rates in December. We also look at what we might glean from RBA Governor Philip Lowe’s talk today and the impact of the earthquake on New Zealand markets: not much, so far.
A Week to Revisit Reality?
Monday 14th November, 2016
Perhaps more surprising than the Trump victory last week was the market response. On today’s Morning Call Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether we can expect a reality check anytime soon, as the detail of Trump’s policies become evident. Some are being watered down, on others, such as the wall, he remains adamant. Others, like his reliance on the Laffer Curve to fund infrastructure, are open to debate.
The Trump Party Rolls On
Friday November 11th, 2016
The positive market reaction to the news of a Trump Presidency continues. As Tapas Strickland, an Economist at NAB’s Fixed Income, Currencies & Commodities, says, the market has latched on to the idea that Trump will be an infrastructure president. And, as Phil Dobbie points out, the positive sentiment seems to have spread to the UK, but Europe is less convinced they’re on to a good thing.
Well, it wasn’t another Brexit on the markets, yet
Thursday November 10th, 2016
Some commentators have been likening the Trump victory to the Brexit vote, but the result hasn’t been as tumultuous on the markets. Phil Dobbie discusses the results overnight with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, with shares on the rise in the US and Europe, the US dollar managing a gain and the Japanese Yen, usually a safe-haven, actually losing ground. For the moment, it seems, the business community is less concerned about Trump than many would have believed.
Election Day – The Calm Before the Calm
Wednesday 9th November, 2016
The markets seem to have assumed a Clinton victory, with shares on the rise, the Mexican Peso on a two month high and the Japanese Yen on the slide. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David deGaris whether a Clinton victory is already priced-in, or can we expect changes later in the day whoever wins. Plus, we look at moves by Chinese authorities to reign in speculative trades in coal and steel.
An FBI-led share rally
Tuesday 8th November, 2016
James Comey has had the biggest influence on share prices over the last 24 hours, more than Clinton or Trump. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catrill about the rally and the fall in the Yen, along with concerns over China’s FX reserves, trade data from the UK, today’s NAB Business Survey and, of course, the big day tomorrow.
The forecast for a week to remember
Monday November 7th, 2016
Tuesday’s US election will be monumental, whatever the outcome. On The Morning Call we kick off the week with Phil Dobbie asking NAB’s Ray Attrill about the market impact for each of the possible outcomes, including the one that nobody wins outright. We also look at Friday’s non-farm payroll data, the journey of the UK pound, NZ’s likely rate cut this week and the plight of the Aussie dollar.
Not a straightforward Brexit
Friday November 4th, 2016
UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s hopes of a straightforward Brexit have been stymied by the High Court which insists there is a parliamentary vote before Article 50 is invoked. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David DeGaris about the impact the news has had on Sterling overnight, together with positive economic data and the words of Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. We also look at today’s Aussie retail trade data, the RBA’s Quarterly Statement and tonight’s US Non-Farm Payrolls.
US dollar, oil and equities, all down, with election polls narrowing
Thursday 3rd November, 2016
The US dollar continues to drift down as the gap between Clinton and Trump narrows in the US election polls. With so much uncertainty, absolutely no surprise that the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David deGaris on this morning’s podcast and asks whether we can expect the Bank of England to do the same, given inflation fears in the UK. Plus, the continued drop in oil prices.
US dollar dwindles on Trump’s resurrection
Wednesday 2nd November, 2016
An ABC News/Washington Post poll now gives Trump a 1% lead over Clinton in the Presidential race. That’s enough of a turnaround to spook the markets. It’s hit the US dollar and the Mexican Peso and treasury yields and equity markets are also down. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about the election race that is far from over, plus analysis of yesterday’s statement from the RBA and other data driving trading decisions today.
Halloween’s oil scare, Trumps offensive and punting on the RBA decision
Tuesday 1st November, 2016
Overnight we saw a weaker than expected US PMI, a drop in oil prices and lots of fighting talk from Donald Trump. Phil Dobbie discusses all that with Rodrigo Cattril, currency strategist at the NAB, as well as today’s RBA rate decision and a less than convincing tip for the Melbourne Cup.