The Morning Call Podcast – April 2017
Mario, Muted Markets and Mugwumps
Friday 28th April 2017
There wasn’t a of movement in markets overnight, as Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s David de Garis. Despite recent positive data from Europe it seems Mario Draghi isn’t keen to rush into changes in ECB policy. Donald Trump has put on hold plans to abandon the North American Free Agreement, whilst there’s less than positive feedback to his one page tax plan. And the Mugwumps! Listen in to find out more.
The Largest Tax Reform in the History of the US
Thursday 27th April, 2017
Cutting corporate tax, reducing income tax and a one-time tax on dollars held overseas – there’s nothing subtle about the reforms announced by President Trump’s economic advisor Gary Cohn in the last few hours. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about the early market response to the plans, along with speculation that the Trump administration might be about to dump their involvement in the North American Free Trade Agreement.
French election euphoria continues; less rejoicing in tariff-hit Canada
Wednesday 26th April, 2017
The result of the French election at the weekend has lifted the Euro for a second day, whilst the positive sentiment is reflected in US shares. But, as Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Tapas Strickland, the celebrations haven’t extended to Canada, which has been hit with a 20 percent tariff on softwood lumber. That’s one way to spoil a party. Plus a look ahead to today’s CPI figures for Australia.
Populism loses. Macron set for a win. Swift market reaction.
Monday 24th April 2017
The markets have reacted positively and swiftly to the results of the French election, which see Emmanuel Macron competing against Marine Le Pen in the second round. Although Le Pen may have won the most votes, it is extremely likely the vote against the far right vote will scupper any chances of her winning the second round. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about the market’s immediate reaction and the likely response later today. Plus, exactly what can we expect from Donald Trump this week – he promised an announcement of his tax plans this Wednesday.
US tax reform “very soon”, French election, Japan’s QE & Aussie rising employment
Friday 21st April 2017
US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said overnight that US tax reform will be with us “very soon”. Haven’t we heard that one before. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about the market’s reaction to Mnuchin’s comment and the Fed’s attitude to a June rate hike – it’s on the rise again. Plus the low down on the French election this weekend, comments from the Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda, and something Ray spotted in the data in yesterday’s NAB quarterly business survey.
A Day of Adjustment
Thursday April 20th, 2017
The pound bounced back today as markets adapted to the news of the forthcoming general election. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril tells Phil Dobbie in today’s Morning Call, the markets were taken by surprise yesterday, along with everyone else. US treasury yields bounced back a little after hitting five month low, and the US dollar finished its slide, perhaps because it’s been a quiet 24 hours on the world stage. President Trump seems to have been more preoccupied with the congressional elections in Georgia. We also look at today’s CPI reading from New Zealand and the latest standing in the French Presidential election.
UK’s snap election, dollars slow slide, RBA’s dovish minutes
Wednesday April 19th, 2017
Britain’s PM is hoping a bigger majority will improve her bargaining position for Brexit, calling for an election on June 8th. It’s had a marked impact on the pound and the Euro overnight. Meanwhile the US dollar continues to slide, with continued political uncertainty and doubts over when and how the Trump administration will deliver its fiscal reforms. And the Aussie fell even further, after dovish minutes from the RBA and a continued fall in iron ore prices.
A Risky Week in Lots of Ways
Tuesday April 18th, 2017
For those hiding under a rock this weekend, the world seems to have come out unscathed. That seems to have eased the risk-off mood in the markets a little, but for how long? Phil Dobbie talks to the NAB’s Ray Attrill about a week filled with geopolitical uncertainty. To North Korea, Syria and Afghanistan, add the repercussions of the Erdogan victory in Turkey and the growing uncertainty around this weekend’s French Presidential election. Then there’s the disappointing CPI results from the US on Friday night – is the economic recovery starting to slow?
Armada strikes bond yields
Thursday April 13th, 2017
As uncertainty remains in the relationship between the US, Russia, China, Syria and North Korea we’ve seen a continued rise in volatility and a fall in bond yields. On the latter, NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it’s not all down to geopolitics – President Trump gave an interview to the Wall Street Journal saying he likes a low interest rate policy, the opposite of what he said during the election campaign. We look ahead to Australian labour force data, China’s trade balance and the price of Easter Eggs.
Volatility over North Korea and Syria’s Unfriendly Skies
Wednesday April 12th, 2017
The VIX up, gold prices on a high, bond yields and the Aussie dollar down – classic signs of a risk-off mood as the markets decide they can’t ignore the Syria and North Korea situations any longer. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about what it all means for the Aussie dollar and the US fiscal program. Plus CPI data from China and the UK and a consumer confidence reading from Australia. We also look back at yesterday’s NAB Business Survey – and the dollar impact of that United Airlines video.
Geopolitics Trumping Data
Tuesday 11th April 2017
There wasn’t much data around on Monday, leaving those dealing in the markets to read the front section of the newspapers! As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Tapas Strickland there’s a growing risk-off sentiment, given the situation in Syria, US relations with Russia and concerns about what the US will do in North Korea. Even the French Presidential elections are starting to looking a little more unclear.
Jobs data hit markets harder than Syria. For now.
Monday 10th April 2017
US employment data fell below expectations on Friday, hitting the markets harder than the escalating problems in Syria. It could be a different story if the US missile attack is repeated, of course. And what came out of the meeting with President’s Trump and Xi? Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about a busy end to last week, and prospects for the week ahead.
Trump and Xi’s Mar-a-Lago Sojourn
Friday 7th April 2017
Two of the world’s most powerful leaders meet at President Trump’s Florida resort for a two day talk-fest (without golf). Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether we can expect anything market moving from this – or perhaps from any escalation in the reaction to Assad’s actions in Syria. We also look ahead to tonight’s ‘glamour’ release from the US – the non-farms payroll.
Moderate market moves (and a more measured Trump?)
Thursday 6th April 2017
Most currencies and equities moved very little overnight. You could argue that’s because everyone is waiting for Friday’s non-farm payrolls data. Or are we, as Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland, seeing a more cautious, calculated approach from the markets. Also, with Steve Bannon off the National Security Council, maybe there are signs of a more restrained President Trump. We’ll find out, as his two-day meeting with President Xi Jinping kicks off soon. We also look at positive data from the US and UK (don’t they know there’s a Brexit on?)
Flat markets, hot property and rich data
Wednesday 5th April 2017
There’s not been much movement in currencies or equities overnight. In fact, one of the strongest movers was the Aussie dollar, down 0.6 percent. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril what’s driving this. We also look at today’s data releases, including PMIs for the USA and UK today, plus what to expect from the FOMC minutes.
Risk Off Mood in a Growing World of Doubt
Tuesday 4th April, 2017
A week or two back everything looked positive. The US economy was growing, Europe and the UK seemed to be weathering Brexit and Australia remained the envy of the world. Things seem to have changed a little. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Tapas Strickland about today’s risk-off mood, driven by a number of factors, from the US and around the world. We’ll look at the US, South Africa, the UK, Europe and Australia – everywhere we turn, uncertainty abounds.
Keep the punchbowl, stop the dumping
Monday 3rd April 2017
We start the quarter in a more sober mood. Perhaps that’s because the Fed’s Bill Dudley said on Friday he wanted to add more fruit juice to the punchbowl. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril for a translation. It’s been taken as a sign of a more doveish approach to rate rises this year. We also look ahead to Friday’s non farms payroll and discuss President Trump’s investigation into trade dumping ahead of his meeting with President Xi Jinping later this week. Plus more on Brexit and the plight of the Aussie dollar this week.