The Morning Call Podcast – August 2017
America grows, Australia builds, Germans inflate, Britain procrastinates
Thursday 31st August 2017
The US reported stronger than expected economic growth, more jobs and a rise in personal expenditure. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland what influence this will have on the Fed’s roadmap for rate rises. They also discuss Trump’s tax ‘rally’ in Missouri, Australia’s stellar construction data, the flailing Brexit talks in Brussels, growth in Europe and data to be on the lookout for today.
Texan Rains, North Korean Air Show and the Euro Standoff
Wednesday 30th August 2017
Today sees an extension of all that was driving the markets 24 hours ago, with the addition of the North Korean missile flying over Japan. But, as NAB’s David de Garis explains to Phil Dobbie the subsequent risk-off mood was neither deep nor long lasting. Instead, the markets reacted to the deepening impact of Hurricane Harvey and Europe playing hardball over Brexit.
Harvey Hits the Economy; Trump Wants Tariffs; Brexit at a Crawl
Tuesday 29th August 2017
The impact of Hurricane Harvey seems bigger than envisaged and is likely to cost the US economy tens of millions of dollars, much of it in insurance payouts and infrastructure repairs. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis what this will mean for President Trump’s tax plans, in what appears to be an increasingly divided administration, particularly over free trade. Plus, the EU has warned that Britain is responsible for slow progress in Brexit talks with a crucial deadline looming. And what to look out for in the day ahead.
Six Things That Will Shape the Trading Week
Monday 28th August 2017
Storms, missile strikes, twitter tirades – just a few of the factors that will influence the markets at the start of the week. Phil Dobbie and NAB’s Rodrigo Catril go through six things you need to keep an eye on at the start of a week of uncertainty. Here’s the list 1) Harvey hits Texas 2) North Korea’s failure 3) Jackson Hole washup 4) Futures 5) Transatlantic politics 6) Data. Listen in for the full story.
Jackson Hole, Trump’s Budget Hole and the UK’s Brexodus
Friday 25th August 2017
It’s been a quiet night with very little data to excite market traders, but that could all change from tonight as Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi speak at the economic symposium at Jackson Hole. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis whether anything new is likely to be said – is it worth staying up for in other words. They also discuss the plight of the British economy on the back of fresh migration and GDP data overnight. Plus the two chances of a US government shutdown, with the threats over the wall and the danger of the debt ceiling not being raised in time.
Trump’s Fiery Wall Ultimatum
Thursday 24th August 2017
The markets have completely reversed their position from a day ago, when there was optimism that changes at the White House could see progress on tax reform. Today the markets are reeling from the President’s address in Phoenix, where he issued an ultimatum – pass the funding for the wall or he’ll close down government. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about the spill over from the President’s remarks and other factors influencing the markets today.
Will Trump pull a tax plan out of the hat?
Wednesday 23rd August 2017
The US dollar and equities did well overnight on reports that maybe President Trump’s administration will be able to successfully pass pro-business legislation, including his long-promised tax reforms. It was a less rosy picture in Europe, where economic sentiment from Germany fell well short of expectations. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis whether this will be reflected in what ECB’s Mario Draghi has to say – he’s speaking twice in the next 24 hours, on both sides of the Atlantic.
Skies darken, Big Ben stops, markets wait
Tuesday 22nd August 2017
It seems the US was fixated with the solar eclipse that covered much of the country today. As NAB’s Tapas Strickland explains to Phil Dobbie, it seems to have distracted markets that moved little on the back of very light economic data. The only significant moves have been in commodity prices, but they’ve had no impact on the Aussie dollar. The markets are waiting for the economic symposium at Jackson Hole later in the week. Meanwhile, could the ECB be running out of bonds to buy?
Trump Tumbles, Oil Rallies, Kim Jong Un Pipes Up
Monday 21st August 2017
It was a bad end to the week for President Trump, although the departure of Steve Bannon was generally seen by the markets as a good thing. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, geopolitics could create more uncertainty in the early part of the week, particularly with very little key data to contend with. They discuss Trump, North Korea, a sharp rise in oil and iron ore on Friday, and the fate of the Aussie and Kiwi dollar.
Risk off mood on Cohn quit rumours and Barcelona attack
Friday 18th August 2017
Adding to the US President’s problems overnight were rumours overnight that his chief economic advisor Gary Cohn might resign. Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Ray Attrill, the impact of the speculation. If it were to happen could we see the US dollar fall further? Meanwhile a terrorist attack in Spain has added to the unease in a session which has had a distinct risk-off tone.
US Dollar Down on Fed Division and Trump Derision
Thursday 17th August 2017
The US dollar was hit on two fronts overnight – first, the Fed seem unsure about how quickly inflation will pick up, and secondly, President Trump has abandoned his CEO advisory councils after a spate of resignations. Phil Dobbie talks through these events, plus employment and wage data from the UK and Australia, with NAB’s Tapas Strickland. And can we expect any new insights from the European Central Bank, who release the minutes of their last meeting this evening?
Supreme Leader watches, whilst America goes shopping
Wednesday 16th August 2017
The markets have recovered further from their brief concerns over North Korea, meaning the focus is back on data and the words of central bank governors. Fortunately, there’s strong retail sales figures from the US to influence the markets. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether this means a December hike is firmly back on the table. And they discuss the continuing strength in Europe and confusion in Britain.
Risk eases on Korean silence; oil falls on weakening Chinese demand
Tuesday 15th August 2017
Nobody said the markets weren’t fickle. All it takes is the distraction of domestic unrest in the US to divert attention from the Korean peninsula, and markets rebound. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Tapas Strickland, the dollar gained ground overnight, bond yields rose, safe haven currencies lost ground, gold retreated – it’s almost as though those harsh words between the two leaders never happened. They also discuss data from China and Japan, look behind a sharp fall in oil prices and look ahead to European data released tonight.
Week ends on weak CPI, will the US dollar bounce back?
Monday 14th August 2017
Friday night’s CPI figures from the US came in weaker than expected, hitting the US dollar further. In this morning’s podcast Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether we can expect further falls in the dollar, or could we see it change direction sometime soon. Right now there seems a significant shift from US dollars to the Euro. They also discuss data released today from China, the Eurozone and Japan.
Nervous markets as Trump turns up his fighting talk
Friday 11th August 2017
Hopes that President Trump might tone down his “fire and fury” rhetoric vanished this morning as the President said his earlier warning wasn’t tough enough. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about the market reaction to this escalating tension. They also look at tonight’s CPI figures from the US – could inflation be further away than thought – and the testimony from RBA Governor Philip Lowe this morning.
The Drive to Safe Havens Begins
Thursday 10th August 2017
Ten years after the start of the global financial crisis, markets are reacting to a very different threat. Overnight we saw a move to traditional safe havens as the rhetoric between the US and North Korea ratchets up a notch or two. The Yen and the Swiss Franc both rose in value, gold shot up, bond prices rose, even the VIX index showed a sharp response. So, what happens next? Phil Dobbie puts the question to NAB economist Tapas Strickland.
Fire and fury and rising job openings
Wednesday 9th August 2017
The US President has threatened North Korea with “fire and fury” overnight, reminding us that geopolitical uncertainty is part of the current landscape. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about this latest outburst, together with the impact of data showing strong jobs openings in the US. Plus the latest trade data form China and Australia’s strengthening business sentiment.
More oil talks; Europe’s blip and North Korean rhetoric
Tuesday 8th August 2017
Whilst the North Koreans talk revenge, oil producers are meeting in Abu Dhabi to talk supply. And Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about these, and other issues impacting the markets today. Why, for example, has the New Zealand dollar taken a hit and what’s upsetting German shareholders? Plus the key data to look out for today.
US Payrolls Save the US Dollar, But Can Anything Save the Tax Bill?
Monday 7th August 2017
President Trump has been happily tweeting about the latest employment data in the US, whilst Gary Cohn, his chief economic adviser, is promising a comprehensive tax bill in the next month or so. A little optimistic perhaps. Phil Dobbie cuts through the hyperbole with NAB’s Ray Attrill, as well as looking ahead to the economic data that matters.
Brexit warnings hit pound; RBA commentary and US jobs data today
Friday 4th August 2017
The pound had a sharp fall overnight. Phil Dobbie talks to the NAB’s Ray Attrill about the commentary from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney which didn’t help the situation, talking about the impacts of Brexit, given the increasing likelihood of a less than smooth transition. They also look ahead to the RBA monetary policy statement today and jobs data from the US tonight.
Trump busy; Euro strong; BoE decision; Aussie trade – deficit or surplus?
Thursday 3rd August 2017
The US dollar weakened overnight, again, as four Fed speakers helped talk it down. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril what exactly was said, and what else is driving the dollar down. Obviously, President Trump’s actions aren’t helping, including a bill forcing further sanctions on Russia and the renewed prospect of tariffs on China. They also discuss the Bank of England rate decision tonight and the Australian trade balance, which could be in surplus, or heavily in deficit. Listen in to find out why.
America holds steady, oil slides, New Zealand milks it
Wednesday 2nd August 2017
The fall of the US dollar took respite overnight, helped by most data coming in as expected and no surprises from the White House (so far). Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about the figures, and a warning from Alan Greenspan about a bubble in bonds. They also discuss the plight of the Aussie dollar, comments from the RBA and how, despite weaker dairy prices, growth continues to provide a challenge for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
Oil and iron ore up, Scaramucci out!
Tuesday 1st August 2017
On day one in his new job President Trump’s Chief of Staff has seen off Anthony Scaramucci as the White House communications director. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about the impact of continued uncertainty in Washington. The US loss is Europe’s gain, but a weakened dollar could ultimately help the US economy and, conversely, provide a challenge for the ECB. They also discuss how this could all impact the RBA’s stance when they meet today. Plus, why has iron ore shot up so much overnight, and data to look out for today.