The Morning Call Podcast – Oct 2016
FBI probe, Aussie interest rates, US GDP and the importance of Soy Beans
Monday 31st October, 2016
On this morning’s podcast NAB’s Ray Attrill talks to Phil Dobbie about the impact of the reopening of the FBI investigation into Hillary Clinton’s private emails, the likelihood of a RBA rate cut and the low down on Friday’s GDP figures from the US. We also look ahead to a week of rich economic data, but will it sway markets with just eight days to go before the US votes?
Could a positive US GDP be the death knell for Trump’s campaign?
Friday 28th October, 2016
Analysts and commentators are hanging out for tonight’s GDP figures from the US. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill if a strong result could be double whammy – increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate hike and taking the wind out of Trump’s sails when he argues economic mismanagement. Plus, better than expected GDP figures for the UK, but a surprise drop in the Aussie dollar.
Australia’s CPI data, US PMI and today’s UK GDP figures
Thursday 27th October, 2016
On today’s podcast Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Bob Cunneen about the significance of yesterday’s Aussie CPI data, as well as positive PMI data from the US overnight. We also look ahead to the latest GDP figures from the UK – could this be the first significant piece of post-Brexit bad news?
Oil, iron ore and Aussie inflation
Wednesday October 26th, 2016
Australia’s Q3 CPI figures will be released this morning. Phil Dobbie discusses what to expect with NAB’s Ray Attrill. We also look at the rise in iron ore and the drop in oil and how the words of the Bank of England Governor drove a rebound in Sterling overnight.
Oil down, skepticism about AT&T deal, German data looks good
Tuesday 25th October 2016
Iraq’s reluctance to play ball is hitting oil, whilst skepticism of the AT&T Time Warner deal is mounting, but doesn’t seem to be slowing the growing confidence in the US economy. And Germany seems to be reporting good news too. Rodrigo Cattril joins Phil Dobbie on the Morning Call this morning.
Oil and Coal up. US & UK GDP figures this week, plus Aussie CPI
Monday October 24th, 2016
Oil prices remain elevated in the hope of some sort of production deal between OPEC and Russia, whilst coal prices provide good news for the Aussie economy. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks to Phil Dobbie about commodities, and looks ahead to this week’s GDP figures from the UK and US. Locally the CPI figures are the ones to watch.
More stimulus for Europe? Or less? Draghi hedges his bets.
Friday 21st October, 2016
Mario Draghi hinted overnight that the European Central Bank might look at more stimulus measures to try and boost inflation. Phil Dobbie discusses the impact of his speech with NAB’s David de Garis. We also look at softening retail sales in the UK and established house sales in the US, as well as today’s release of housing data from China. And, oh yes, that debate!
China’s GDP, oil prices and mixed US housing data
Thursday 20th October 2016
China’s GDP figures surprised nobody yesterday but, as Phil Dobbie asks Bob Cunneen, Senior Economist and Portfolio Specialist at NAB Asset Management, can the authorities maintain that growth whilst managing corporate deleveraging? All that, plus US housing data, today’s Aussie employment data and, don’t forget, the third round of the fiery Presidential debate series.
Rebound in Sterling, US CPI fails to impress, China GDP out today
Wednesday 19th October, 2016
The headline CPI figure from the US met market expectations, but, as NAB’s Dave de Garis explains, there’s underlying data that tells a different story. And he talks with Phil Dobbie about developments in the UK, where Brexit might see a softer landing. We also look ahead to today’s GDP data from China.
Happy CPI day!
Tuesday October 18th, 2016
It’s a big data day today, with CPI reports from New Zealand, the UK and the US, plus a bunch of other facts and figures. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril takes Phil Dobbie through it all, with the implications and the market’s expectations.
Yellen’s “High Pressure Economy” and the week ahead
Monday October 17th, 2016
Janet Yellen, chair of the US Federal Reserve, spoke on Friday about the need for the US to run a high pressure economy. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill what exactly she means by that? Is it a sign that inflation should be allowed to climb without any interest rate intervention? Plus a look at a busy week for inflation data and US earnings.
Weaker China trade data – and lowest US unemployment for 43 years
Friday October 14th, 2016
China’s trade figures were worse than expected overnight. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether it’s a worrying sign for the Chinese economy. Meanwhile, despite the lowest unemployment figures since 1976, the US dollar lost ground overnight. But a wealth of US data in the next 24 hours could change all that.
Fed minutes, oil talks and May’s continued firm stance on Brexit
Thursday, October 13, 2016
Ray Attrill joins Phil Dobbie on the Morning Call today to discuss the minutes of the last Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting, as well as the unofficial oil talks in Instanbul and Theresa May’s hard Brexit stance. Plus, why should we be listening to what Patrick Harker has to say?
Trump down. Oil down. Pound, way on down
Wednesday 12th October, 2016
We don’t want to sound pessimistic, but aside from the Japanese Yen, most indicators headed south overnight. One notable downward figure was only bad news if you hoped to see Donald Trump in the White House. The likelihood the job will go to Hillary Clinton seems to have heightened the likelihood of a December rate hike even further. Phil Dobbie dissects the days results with NAB Asset Management’s Bob Cunneen.
Putin pushes oil to a one year high, Trump helps the dollar
Tuesday 11th October, 2016
Oil prices have risen to their highest level in a year after Vladamir Putin said he was ready to join OPEC in limiting oil production. Meanwhile the belief that Trump’s chances of victory are looking slimmer seems to have helped the US dollar. Phil Dobbie talks with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about these stories and other events likely to influence the markets today.
Will Trump manage a flash-crash style comeback?
Monday 10th October, 2016
We’re a matter of hours away from the next US Presidential debate. On today’s Morning Call Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill what the market impact of the debate will be. We also look at Friday’s Sterling flash crash and the US non-farm payroll data, as well as previewing the week ahead. The Aussie dollar moved very little last week – is it more of the same this week?
All eyes on US non-farm Payroll data
Friday 7th October, 2016
Today we see the most significant indicator of the strength of the US economy – is employment increasing and are salary numbers on the rise. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril what impact a positive result will have on the increasing likelihood of a December rate hike. Plus the ECB board minutes, the continuing plight of Sterling and what to look out for from China today.
Positive US data, oil rises, ECB taper tantrums and healthy Aussie retail sales
Thursday 6th October, 2016
Positive manufacturing data from the US. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill if this is what’s driven S&P growth overnight. Plus, how the prospect of ECB QE tapering is impacting the bond market. And we talk about the Pound (again) and Australia’s boost in retail sales – it’s good but let’s no go overboard.
Pound lowest since 85, FTSE almost on a high
Wednesday 5th October, 2016
The Conservative Party conference in the UK continues to have a marked impact on Sterling and the FTSE. Bob Cunneen from NAB Asset Management joins Phil Dobbie to discuss Britain’s plight, more mixed data from the US and where Aussie retail figures might head today.
Pound loses ground – US rate hike more likely?
Tuesday 4th October, 2016
The pound has been falling as the pollies at the UK’s Conservative Party Conference talk more of a hard Brexit. Phil Dobbie talks with NAB’s David de Garis about Sterling, the US PMI and what they’ll be discussing at the RBA meeting today.
A positive mood, not just for Bulldogs Fans and Brexiteers
Monday 3rd October, 2016
The week kicks off with a little more optimism. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Dave de Garis about speculation of a Deutsche Bank deal with the US Department of Justice, positive manufacturing figures from China and a widening lead for Hillary Clinton in the US polls. In Australia will this buoyant mood spill over beyond the MCG? And what impact will Theresa May’s Brexit timetable have on Sterling?