The Morning Call Podcast – Sept 2016
Yesterday only more so: Oil Prices and Deutsche Bank woes
Friday September 30th, 2016
NAB’s Ray Attrill discusses the continuing troubles at Deutsche Bank and the impact on shares and currency markets. Plus, continued optimism about an OPEC production deal and more positive data from the US. But let’s not ignore the elephant in the room …
An oil deal. And a field day for the Feds
Thursday September 29th, 2016
A deal has been reached by OPEC to lower oil production. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether it’ll really come to fruition. Plus, the Fed’s are out of the woodwork with several engagements today, but will any say anything to change the likelihood of a December US rate hike.
The Peso says Clinton won. Back to business as usual.
Wednesday September 28th, 2016
The Peso rebounded overnight suggesting those selling short based on a Trump Presidential victory have changed their minds. But it’s early days. Meanwhile, Phil Dobbie is joined by NAB’s Bob Cunneen to discuss other factors influencing the markets today, including the continuing slide in 10 Year Bond yields.
The Great Debate – the Fallout
Tuesday September 27th, 2016
In today’s Presidential debate, no matter who is seen to win, there are likely to be consequences on international markets. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill what he sees as the knock on effect if Trump wins, or if Clinton wins. Plus the big hit in European shares overnight.
Oil Talks On a Road to Nowhere
Monday 26th September, 2016
With Iran and Saudi Arabia failing to reach an agreement on oil production levels it seems likely that OPEC talks in Algiers this week will see little change. So what impact will this have on oil prices and the Aussie economy? Phil Dobbie asks Ray Attrill, NAB’s Global C-head of FX Strategy. We also look ahead to Monday night’s US election debate.
Busy Doing Nothing (on interest rates)
Friday 23rd September, 2016
The Fed didn’t move rates this week. Neither did the Reserve Bank of New Zealand or the Bank of Japan. The Bank of England’s Kristin Forbes says they shouldn’t move either. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB Asset Management’s Bob Cunneen about the reluctance of Reserve Bank’s anywhere to make changes right now.
No rate change from the Fed or Bank of Japan. So, what next?
Thursday 22nd September, 2016
In the last few hours the US Federal Reserve announced they would not be lifting interest rates. Earlier, the Bank of Japan decided not to push further into negative territory, instead introducing a zero percent target for ten-year government bonds. Phil Dobbie talks with NAB’s David de Garis about the repercussions of a busy day. And it’s only just begun!
The Morning Before the Trifecta
Wednesday 21st September, 2016
Three Reserve Banks announce monetary policy decisions in the next 24 hours: the US, Japan and New Zealand. Phil Dobbie talks with NAB’s David de Garis about likely outcomes and whether the latest housing and dairy auction results could have an impact on the US and NZ decisions.
Inflation targets, house prices and technical demons
Tuesday 20th September, 2016
As the markets hang out for Thursday’s US Fed and Bank of Japan decisions trading has been quiet – not helped by yesterday’s problems on the ASX, of course. On today’s Morning Call podcast Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about the RBA’s reaffirmation of their inflation target and today’s ABS House Price data. Plus, a rise in oil prices overnight could impact the ASX today, assuming it’s open after yesterday’s technical glitches.
US inflation, a Brexit reality check and Lowe’s first week
Monday September 19th, 2016
Phil Dobbie speaks with NAB’s Ray Attrill about Friday’s US CPI data, Phillip Hammond’s reality check on Brexit and Phillip Lowe’s first week as Governor of the RBA. Plus, the looming central bank decisions from the US and Japan.
Data disappoints and US stocks revive
Friday September 16th, 2016
A day with disappointing sales and production figures from the US, although it didn’t filter through to movement in currencies. Ray Attrill, NAB’s Global Co-Head of FX Strategy, joins us to make sense of the data that encouraged a fair bit of hand sitting.
Volatility subsides. Less movement, except in oil
Thursday September 15th, 2016
The volatility early in the week seems to have calmed down somewhat, with little movement in currencies or equities. But there’s still lots to talk about. Bob Cunneen, Senior Economist and Portfolio Specialist at NAB Asset Management, joins us to discuss further falls in oil and fresh data from the UK and Europe. Plus, what to look out for today.
A volatile night for currencies and asset prices
Wednesday September 14th, 2016
The US dollar gained a lot of ground on the pound and the Aussie dollar overnight, with equities also taking a hit. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril to explain the markets’ current bout of volatility.
Brainard calms the markets
Tuesday 13th September, 2016
Friday’s share markets took a hit with fears that the Fed’s Lael Brainard would change direction and support the case for an early interest rate rise. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s David de Garis, in the early hours of this morning she made her position clear. She sees no reason to move quickly. But what about volatility closer to home?
US share volatility driven by interest fears
Monday September 12th, 2016
Friday saw a big fall in US stocks as the attitudes towards an interest rate rise become clearer. On today’s Morning Call Phil Dobbie asks Ray Attrill, NAB’s Global Co-Head of FX Strategy, why, in the face of lacklustre data, the general sentiment seems more hawkish than a week ago.
Rises in oil prices and Chinese imports, dampened by some hard talk at home
Friday September 9th, 2016
Oil prices increased markedly as the US drew down the highest inventory levels for 17 years. Meanwhile an increase in Chinese imports could only be good news for Australia, but some home truths from Glen Stevens dampened enthusiasm somewhat.
Carney fronts up, Chinese reserves, the Beige Book & the Kiwi Dollar
Thursday September 8th, 2016
Whilst Mark Carney appeared in front of a Treasury Select Committee, figures from the UK showed a dip in manufacturing output. Phil Dobbie talks to Rodrigo Catril, currency strategist at the NAB, about the impact on the pound, plus data from China and the expected contents of the Fed’s Beige Book. Plus, parity between the NZ and Australia dollars – could it happen again soon?
Disappointing US services data, optimism for Aussie GDP growth
Wednesday 7th September, 2016
The US dollar was hit overnight by disappointing ISM services growth data. Closer to home the ABS releases Q2 GDP figures today with an expectation that it might be higher than earlier forecasts. Phil Dobbie asks Bob Cunneen, Senior Economist & Portfolio Specialist at NAB Asset Management what are the grounds for this optimism?
Big day for oil and the pound, balance of payments and RBA for Australia
Tuesday 6th September 2016
The Pound and the price of oil saw a lot of movement overnight. The pound benefited from a stronger than expected UK Services PMI, whilst oil responded to talks between Russia and Saudi Arabia. Phil Dobbie discusses both with Ray Attrill, NAB’s Global C-Head of FX Strategy, as well as a look ahead to today’s balance of payments figures.
Will the Pound and the Aussie Dollar hold their own?
Manufacturing surprises in the US and UK
Friday 2nd September 2016
Two surprising results in the last 24 hours. The UK’s PMI (manufacturing index) recorded the highest increase in 25 years, whilst the US ISM manufacturing index showed the biggest single drop in two years. On today’s Morning Call Phil Dobbie asks Ray Attrill, the NAB’s Global Co-Head of FX strategy whether the figures are aberrations or the sign of an emerging trend.
Oil (and a Dove) Spoils the Party
Thursday 1st September 2016
An oil surplus has hit prices overnight, whilst Charles Evans, President of the Federal Reserve of Chicago has talked down the prospect of a rate rise. Meanwhile, Rodrigo Catril, currency strategist at the NAB, tells us to prepare for a slew of interesting data from 11am today.