The Morning Call Podcast – September 2017
Show us the numbers! Markets cautious on US tax plan
Friday 29th September 2017
The positive sentiment in the US seems to have stalled a little overnight. Despite positive trade figures and a slight increase in the Q2 GDP estimate, the US dollar lost ground. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether the lack of specific detail on yesterday’s tax plan is the main area of concern. They also look at what’s keeping Europe happy today, what’s been keeping the Aussie dollar down and what was said at the Bank of England conference yesterday. Plus a look ahead to tonight’s US PCE deflators – are we nearing an end to the ‘mystery’ low inflation?
Nine pages of hope for the Trump presidency
Thursday 28th September 2017
President Trump’s administration has released a nine page tax blueprint for America. As NAB’s David de Garis discusses with Phil Dobbie, the markets have reacted strongly, as though there’s an expectation that this time there will be enough support for the plans to get traction and actually see the light of day. They also discuss an interesting chapter in today’s IMF World Economic Outlook that looks at the relationship between economic growth and salaries. That, and a plethora of central bank speak across the globe – they’re out in force today.
Yellen won’t wait; Healthcare repeal dead; Tusk Tusk for May
Wednesday 27th September 2017
All it takes is 24 hours without incendiary tweets about North Korea and the markets retreat from their safe havens. Maybe they’ll be back again tomorrow. As NAB’s Ray Attrill explains to Phil Dobbie, we can expect to see the framework for President Trump’s tax reforms soon, just as the Obamacare repeal bill is ditched. Meanwhile Janet Yellen, who said last week that it’s a mystery where inflation has gone, hinted that the Fed shouldn’t wait for it. And Donald Tusk told Theresa May that there hadn’t been enough progress to start talking about trade agreements. Tsk Tsk.
A snap election; threats of war and a blockade; mixed feelings from central banks
Tuesday 26th September 2017
As markets adjust to the surprising result in the German election, Monday threw new geopolitical news into the fray. Phil Dobbie talks with NAB’s Tapas Strickland about the Kurdistan elections, Japan’s stimulus and snap election, and the latest sentiment from the US Fed and the ECB. Oh, and North Korea thinks they’re at war. Actually, technically they never signed a peace treaty so they have been at war since 1950.
Merkel’s half win, NZ in balance, May kicks the can
25th September 2017
The New Zealand and German elections produced inconclusive results over the weekend. Neither country is a stranger to coalition governments, but we’re not precisely sure the composition of either just yet. Add to that the inconclusive nature of Theresa May’s Brexit speech – where she did little except try and kick the Brexit can two years down the road – and the continued unrest between the US and North Korea. Does that mean we can expect more uncertainty in the markets at the start of the week? It’s a question Phil Dobbie puts to NAB’s Ray Attrill in this morning’s Morning Call podcast.
Lowe takes the dollar lower; It’s May Day in Europe
22nd September 2017
Philip Lowe’s comments last night hit the Aussie dollar hard, and seems to have taken the Kiwi dollar with it. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland what the RBA Governor said to prompt such a sharp reaction. Meanwhile, the day 2 response to the US Fed meeting yesterday has been fairly muted. New Zealand and Germany prepare for elections this weekend, and Theresa May will have to impress in her address to the EU if she is to see Brexit negotiations progress.
US Fed Confirms End to QE; Inflation Shortfall “a Mystery”
Thursday 21st September
Today the US Federal reserve provided the confirmation the markets had been waiting for – they will start winding back their quantitative easing program from next month. Phil Dobbie and NAB’s David de Garis discuss what was said in the press conference that followed the announcement and how the market has reacted. Plus a rise in oil prices, a UK rate rise now looking more certain and the progress of the New Zealand economy.
Fed meets, Trump talks, Markets ignore him
Wednesday 20th September 2017
President Trump’s threat to destroy North Korea if provoked left the UN nonplussed and the markets similarly disinterested. Instead, the real jockeying is ahead of tomorrow morning’s FOMC rate announcement and the associated speculation – when will rates rise, how often and what’s the program for reversing quantitative easing? Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about what will influence the markets today and why the Aussie and Kiwi dollars and doing so well.
Words Count for Everything with Central Bank Sensitivity
Tuesday 19th September 2017
There’s a resurging risk-on mood ahead of the FOMC meeting this week. But, as Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Ray Attrill, we have to get through President Trump’s address to the UN before that. Meanwhile, the pound has taken a hit as Mark Carney warns that Brexit uncertainty could slow down changes to the BoE’s monetary approach. Plus, what of the RBA minutes today? And what has the Bank of Canada said to drive their dollar lower?
Witching Friday not spooked by missile; EU and UK diverge on policy
Monday 18th September 2017
Kim Jong Un is losing his influence it seems, with the markets little moved by his latest missile demonstration. As NAB’s David de Garis discusses with Phil Dobbie the markets were more influenced by US’s disappointing retail sales, and the impact of Quadruple Witching, when options and futures for stocks and indices all expire on the same day. There was more significant action in Europe, with the UK heading for a rate rise whilst some in Europe question the need to ease off on the stimulus lever.
UK Ready for a Rate Rise; US too perhaps?
Friday 15th September 2017
After a decade could the UK be about to see a lift in interest rates – in “coming months” is the phrase they used by the Bank of England. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about how quickly we can expect it to happen and, with strong CPI data overnight, could the US possibly beat them to it. Meanwhile the US dollar has been held back by more fighting talk from the Supreme Leader, the shine was taken off the Aussie dollar by weaker than anticipated activity indicators from China. Listen in as Phil and David talk through what’s influencing the markets this morning.
Brit’s worse off; Europe’s the bastion of stability; US tries again with tax
Thursday 14th September 2017
The US dollar gained ground overnight with talk of a renewed attempt to see through tax reforms. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether the markets are being overly optimistic. They also look at the UK unemployment rate – now at a 42-year low – whilst real wages continue to fall. Then there’s Jean Claude Juncker’s state of union address in which he described Europe as the bastion of stability. And employment data for Australia – could jobs growth bring forward our expectation of an Aussie rate hike?
Risk on, Phone Out, Prices Up
Wednesday 13th September
The markets moved further into risk-on territory again, as they get back to economic fundamentals instead of geopolitical concerns. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether this means we’re back to speculating on a US rate rise for December. President Trump is also back onto promoting tax reform, even preparing to back date it if he gets it through. Meanwhile the UK has seen higher than expected inflation and the Repeal Bill, the first bit of Brexit legislation, made it through the Commons. Whilst Australia has seen a surprising dip in business confidence. Listen in for the background on all these stories, plus the goss on the new iPhone.
Back to risk mode as storm eases, Kim doesn’t fire and Donald stays off Twitter
Tuesday 12 September 2017
It’s been a day where the markets have been defined mostly by what didn’t happen. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Tapas Strickland, Hurricane Irma didn’t cause as much damage as was feared, Kim Jong Un didn’t fire a missile and President Trump didn’t tweet anything provocative. It’s seen a return to risk sentiment, helped by Texas on the road to recovery, with refineries reopening and helping to boost the oil price. But in the background, how will the Supreme Leader react to a UN Security Council resolution today and what of Britain’s Great Repeal vote and CPI figures today? They also look ahead to the Norwegian general election and NAB’s Business Survey out today.
Irma strong, US dollar weaker, ECB ready to act, the UK set to repeal
Monday 11th September 2017
Hurricane Irma is moving slowly along the coast of Florida, with heavy rain and storm surges likely to add to America’s mounting repair bill. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether this has obliterated any chance of a US rate rise this year. They also discuss the continuing slide in the US dollar, the impact it is having on the Aussie, the Reuters reports that the ECB is set to ease their monetary stimulus from the beginning of 2018, and the big Repeal Bill being voted on in the UK’s House of Commons tonight.
ECB decides not to decide; Trump’s storm with Republicans
Friday 8th September 2017
President Trumps decision to seek support from the Democrats on the extension of the debt ceiling has infuriated many Republicans. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland if this will further hinder the President’s chances of implementing any kind of reform. Meanwhile the ECB has decided not to make any decision on quantitative easing – other than pushing the decision back to the next meeting. Meanwhile Hurricane Irma wreaks havoc through the Caribbean and, probably Florida, whilst North Korea could well be launching another missile this weekend. That, and much more, on The Morning Call.
Canada did lift rates; Congress to kick debt can down the road; Fischer resigns from Fed
Thursday September 7th, 2017
This morning Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about an eventful night ahead of a busy day. The US Congress looks likely to kick the debt ceiling can down the road till December, the Bank of Canada did lift interest rates and Stanley Fischer, vice chair of the Fed, has handed in his notice. Meanwhile, the big question of the day – what exactly will the ECB say tonight? To taper or not, that is the question. All that, plus Australia’s trade balance and retail figures today … a packed edition of the Morning Call from NAB.
The World keeps turning, Australia keeps growing, storms keep blowing
Wednesday 6th September 2017
For the moment, locally at least, data and central bank minutes might have more influence on the markets than North Korea. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about the statement from the RBA yesterday, and comments from Philip Lowe last night. They also look ahead to today’s Aussie GDP figures. Meanwhile, whilst commodity prices recover from Hurricane Harvey what impact could Irma have on the US economy? And, yes, there is the standoff over North Korea. Listen in for a heads-up on all that’s influencing the markets today.
Are Kim and Donald crying wolf? A Henry VIII power grab for UK.
Tuesday 5th September 2017
The markets have reacted again to the increasing tension over North Korea, but not in an extreme fashion. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis whether the response has been tapered by the reality that any military action would be devastating and much of what has been said are empty words. They also look at how the so-called Henry VIII powers in the UK’s EU withdrawal bill will present a challenge for Theresa May, and they look ahead to the RBA decision today and a talk by tonight Fed governor Lael Brainard tonight.
Bombastic Kim and the Harvey Wallbanger
Monday 4th September 2017
Just how will the markets react to North Korea’s bomb test over the weekend? And could the repair cost from Hurricane Harvey secure the US debt ceiling whilst giving the President an excuse not to bang on about his wall? Phil Dobbie puts those questions to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril in this edition of The Morning Call. Plus what to expect from Central Banks this week – and could the Aussie dollar rise above 80 US cents?
China and Canada going well; Brexit and US Inflation not so much
Friday 1st September 2017
No upward momentum in US inflation hit the US dollar overnight, although, as NAB’s Tapas Strickland explains to Phil Dobbie, the fall had as much to do with the rise in the Canadian dollar after a positive GDP reading. They also discuss China’s manufacturing PMIs, the ongoing aftermath of Tropical Storm Harvey, and how the ECB might be running scared on easing off their QE too quickly. Plus, Brexit goes nowhere, and what to expect from tonight’s non-farm payrolls in the US. It’s day one of a busy September.