24.09.2025
NAB Economists have today revised their interest rate outlook following August’s CPI data, now expecting the RBA to hold at 3.6% until May—replacing earlier forecasts of cuts in November and February.
Key points:
- NAB now see the RBA on hold at 3.6% until May (previously cuts in November and February).
- August CPI data points to a 0.9%-1.0% qoq outcome for Q3 trimmed mean, which would be a 0.3ppt upside surprise to current RBA forecasts.
- The detail shows that market services inflation is significantly hotter than expected.
- For the RBA, this means considerably less certainty that inflation has settled near 2.5% and highlights the likelihood that it will take a period of modestly restrictive policy for inflation to settle at 2.5%.
For further detail, please see the NAB Monetary Policy Update (PDF, 112KB).
