Author – Denton Pugh, NAB Executive for Home Lending. Originally published on News.com.au.
We might be deep into the winter months, but there’s definite signs of warmth returning to Australia’s property market.
Home values across the country have nudged higher again, rising 0.5% in May and lifting the national index 1.7% over the first five months of the year. And every capital city recorded growth. A sign that confidence in the market is continuing to grow.
We’re seeing this confidence play out in people like Emily Chalk, a 32-year-old first-home buyer who recently bought a home just outside of Rockhampton, in regional Queensland. She’d spent six months looking for a place to call home.
A conversation with her banker helped her understand how the Government’s Home Guarantee Scheme could help get her into her first home sooner than she thought. Within weeks she’d bought a home in the town she grew up in.
Stories like Emily’s are becoming increasingly more common.
It’s not just upgraders or investors sitting on equity returning to the market. Many first-home buyers have been waiting for banks to reduce home lending rates so they can not only borrow more but also have that confidence to take the leap into homeownership.
New NAB home lending data shows lending to first home buyers is up 16% since February, and up 32% to home buyers more broadly.
While interest rates are still relatively high, recent rate cuts are helping. With these cuts combined with initiatives like the Home Guarantee Scheme, we’re starting to see more people take that first step into homeownership.
Of course, we can’t ignore the bigger picture. While monthly growth is returning, the annual pace of property price increases has slowed. Not great news for investors but good news for those trying to break into the market.
We’re also seeing strong momentum in regional markets; a trend that’s been building since the pandemic years and is not going away.
In fact, Queensland regional hotspots dominated our list of the five hottest regional markets so far in 2025*. Toowoomba, Burnett, Springfield-Redbank, and the Sunshine Coast Hinterland all ranked high for home loan activity. Geelong in Victoria was the only non-Queensland regional hotspot to break into the top five.
- Toowoomba – QLD
- Burnett – QLD
- Springfield – Redbank – QLD
- Geelong – VIC
- Sunshine Coast Hinterland – QLD
- Mandurah – WA
- Loganlea – QLD
- Ballarat – VIC
- Maryborough – QLD
- Mackay – QLD
It may be the weather, or the lifestyle, but regional markets offer more than just charm and appealing work life balance. They offer affordability and the potential for long-term growth. For buyers like Emily, the appeal of staying close to family, and finding space for a young family was strong.
“I already know most of my neighbours, I definitely didn’t have that when I was living in Brisbane,” first-home buyer, Emily Chalk.
This continued momentum is promising, but it also highlights one of the biggest challenges still facing the market – we need more homes.
Lower rates are helping on the demand side, but affordability and supply remain big hurdles. Addressing those issues will take time, commitment, and smart policy. Particularly when it comes to getting new housing built in the places people want to live.
The winter months are usually quieter for the housing market, however, with most economists expecting further interest rate cuts this year, winter activity is expected to be a little higher than usual, continuing to build for the busier spring period.
More information:
- *NAB proprietary home lending data between January – April 2025 vs the year prior.
