Dwelling price growth was already easing ahead of the Federal budget and has continued to slow, with national dwelling prices flat in May. This is the softest monthly outcome since late 2024.
05 June 2026
11 March 2026
Key points
- We now expect the RBA to raise rates in both March and May to a peak of 4.35% (previously one hike in May and 4.1% peak)
- The starting point of robust growth, a too-tight labour market and too-high inflation already supported further tightening.
- New upside pressure on inflation tips the balance in favour of an additional increase.
- Much will depend on the trajectory of oil prices and the domestic data flow, and we see two-sided risks around our new central case for a 4.35% peak.
- We continue to expect gradual easing back towards more neutral levels from H2 2027.
For further detail, please see the latest NAB Monetary Policy Update. (PDF, 437KB)
