11 March 2026


Key points

  • We now expect the RBA to raise rates in both March and May to a peak of 4.35% (previously one hike in May and 4.1% peak)
  • The starting point of robust growth, a too-tight labour market and too-high inflation already supported further tightening.
  • New upside pressure on inflation tips the balance in favour of an additional increase.
  • Much will depend on the trajectory of oil prices and the domestic data flow, and we see two-sided risks around our new central case for a 4.35% peak.
  • We continue to expect gradual easing back towards more neutral levels from H2 2027.

For further detail, please see the latest NAB Monetary Policy Update. (PDF, 437KB) 

Topics


Media Enquiries


For all media enquiries, please contact the NAB Media Line on 03 7035 5015

Related Articles


NAB FSU Joint Statement – Resolution of Proceedings

Company Announcements

The Finance Sector Union of Australia (FSU) and National Australia Bank (NAB) confirm that they have reached an agreement to resolve the matters that were the subject of proceedings in the Federal Court of Australia.  

24 April 2026 | 1 min read

Innovation in action: NAB takes part in digital assets trial

Technology Innovation

NAB is actively exploring how digital assets can deliver value to customers through collaboration with our partners. 

24 April 2026 | 2 min read

Forward View Australia- April 2026: Strait talk - Growth lower, uncertainty higher

Economic Market News

Australia’s economic outlook has become more uncertain, with higher fuel prices weighing on growth and adding fresh pressure to inflation, according to NAB’s Australian Forward View.

24 April 2026 | 3 min read