We now expect the RBA to raise rates in both March and May to a peak of 4.35% (previously one hike in May and 4.1% peak). |
11 March 2026 | 1 min read
11 March 2026
Key points
- We now expect the RBA to raise rates in both March and May to a peak of 4.35% (previously one hike in May and 4.1% peak)
- The starting point of robust growth, a too-tight labour market and too-high inflation already supported further tightening.
- New upside pressure on inflation tips the balance in favour of an additional increase.
- Much will depend on the trajectory of oil prices and the domestic data flow, and we see two-sided risks around our new central case for a 4.35% peak.
- We continue to expect gradual easing back towards more neutral levels from H2 2027.
For further detail, please see the latest NAB Monetary Policy Update. (PDF, 437KB)
