11 March 2026

Key points

  • We now expect the RBA to raise rates in both March and May to a peak of 4.35% (previously one hike in May and 4.1% peak)
  • The starting point of robust growth, a too-tight labour market and too-high inflation already supported further tightening.
  • New upside pressure on inflation tips the balance in favour of an additional increase.
  • Much will depend on the trajectory of oil prices and the domestic data flow, and we see two-sided risks around our new central case for a 4.35% peak.
  • We continue to expect gradual easing back towards more neutral levels from H2 2027.

For further detail, please see the latest NAB Monetary Policy Update. (PDF, 437KB) 

Topics

Interest Rates

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