Speaking on the NAB Broker podcast this week, NAB’s Chief Economist Alan Oster has predicted four more 25bp cuts to take the cash rate to 3.1% in February 2026.
“Based on what we’re seeing in terms of inflation, we would expect them to cut again in May, August and then maybe November,” Mr Oster said.
“We expect another one early next year as well because we think you should have a cash rate back towards neutral, somewhere around 3%.”
Reflecting on the RBA’s decision to drop the official cash rate by 25bps last week, Mr Oster said he was expecting a “hawkish cut”.
“Their main message also was we’re going to cut now, but we’re not in a great hurry, so don’t expect two or three in a row.”
“I think it will take a while for them to sit back and look at the data.”
Mr Oster’s reflections come as the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.5% in the 12 months to January, following a 2.5% rise in the 12 months to December.
Listen to the full podcast below.
Learn more about managing your home loan now that interest rates have dropped from NAB Retail Executive Larna Manson in this NAB News explainer.
