Economic & Market News

Too much demand, not enough economy

• The economy looks to have maintained much of the momentum gained through mid-2025 and the unemployment rate remains low.
• A number of indicators point to the economy running up against capacity constraints and there is a risk that inflation pressures persist.
• With underlying inflation expected to track above 3% for most of 2026, we see the RBA lifting rates to 4.1% in May.

19 February 2026 | 2-3 minutes

January’s solid rise comes on the back of a very strong quarter for spending in the three months to December. 

17 February 2026 | 3 min read

Dwelling prices across the combined capitals have risen 9.2% over the past year. In January, prices rose 0.7% mom, even as Sydney and Melbourne have slowed.

17 February 2026 | 3 min read

While Australians are navigating increased financial and emotional pressures, the data highlights a community that remains proactive, adaptable, and strongly committed to preserving wellbeing.

16 February 2026 | 2 min read

NAB Chief Economist, Sally Auld, unpacks today’s decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to increase the cash rate by 0.25bps to 3.85%.

04 February 2026 | 3 min read

NAB Group CEO Andrew Irvine has shared his reflections on the economy for the year ahead, saying Australians continue to have many reasons to feel optimistic.

14 January 2026 | 1 min read

NAB Economics and Markets Research has launched a new monthly Housing Monitor, a chart-based overview of key data relevant for residential property.

14 January 2026 | 2 min read

NAB Group CEO Andrew Irvine said Australia’s economy remained in good shape heading into 2026.

12 January 2026 | 1 min read

The economy looks to be ending 2025 with private sector growth strong and the labour market healthy. 

25 December 2025 | 2 min read

The NAB Spend Trend has shown consumer spending continued its steady climb in November, rising 0.6% as Black Friday sales buoyed household goods and strong demand for travel and hospitality led growth across services.

17 December 2025 | 3 min read

Business confidence fell 5pts (unrounded) in November, retracing some of the gains made over the past 6-months. 

17 December 2025 | 2 min read

We now expect the RBA to increase the policy rate by 25bp in February. This is likely to be followed by another 25bp increase in May, taking the cash rate to 4.1%.

16 December 2025 | 2 min read