The next move in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing remains uncertain, according to the latest NAB Economics RBA Watch.
09 June 2026 | 3 min read
17 March 2026
NAB’s Consumer Spend Trend report reveals how Australians are navigating the economic landscape, with fresh insights into where, how and what households are spending. Based on aggregated transaction data, the report tracks shifts in consumer behaviour across states, industries and demographics.
February's data shows:
- Consumer spending rose 0.4% in February, suggesting a solid Q1.
- Goods spending increased 0.4%, as gains in most categories outweighed a 3% drop in fuel spending.
- Services spending lifted 0.5% with the strongest growth in recreation & personal services.
- Spending on travel declined for the third consecutive month.
- The data likely does not yet fully reflect the recent challenges posed by the February rate hike and the conflict in Iran.
Over the last year:
- Services categories, including utilities & telecoms and recreation & personal services led spending growth over the past year.
- Goods spending grew more moderately, with personal goods spending the main driver.
Click the link below to view the full report:
