The next move in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing remains uncertain, according to the latest NAB Economics RBA Watch.
09 June 2026 | 3 min read
26 March 2026
- Confidence slides to a 15‑month low as cost and labour pressures intensify.
- Conditions ease but remain positive, keeping activity momentum intact.
- Wage pressures persist, reinforcing a tight labour market into 2026.
NAB’s Q1 Business Survey shows business confidence has weakened, while business conditions have broadly held up, suggesting activity has retained some momentum despite a more cautious outlook.
Business confidence fell to -4 index points, its lowest level since December 2024. Business conditions fell 1pt to 7 index points, driven by falls in all three sub‑components, though conditions continue to hold onto gains made in 2025.
NAB Head of Australian Economics, Gareth Spence, said the survey highlights a softening in sentiment rather than a sharp deterioration in activity.
“Overall, the Q1 survey shows that while confidence has weakened conditions have broadly held up and that there remains some momentum in activity despite businesses having shed some optimism.”
By industry, conditions fell in most sectors, with wholesale, manufacturing and construction the exceptions. Despite quarterly declines, conditions remained positive in five of eight industries, led by finance, property and business services, followed by construction. Confidence fell across all industries except mining, which now joins manufacturing and construction in positive territory.
Conditions eased across all states but remained positive nationwide, with Tasmania and Queensland the strongest at 14 and 12 index points respectively.
Wage costs were again cited as the biggest issue affecting business confidence, with labour reported as a significant constraint by a growing share of firms.
“Wage costs remained the biggest issue affecting business confidence and the share of firms reporting labour as a significant constraint rose in the quarter highlighting that the labour market has remained tight to start 2026.”
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