The next move in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing remains uncertain, according to the latest NAB Economics RBA Watch.
09 June 2026 | 3 min read
15 April 2026
- Consumer spending rose 2.1 percent in March, driven by fuel.
- Ex‑fuel spending increased a solid 0.7 percent.
- Spending shifted toward essentials as discretionary services eased.
Australian consumer spending rose 2.1 percent in March, driven by a sharp increase in fuel spending due to higher prices, according to NAB’s latest Consumer Spend Trend report.
Excluding fuel, spending rose a solid 0.7 percent month on month, supported by higher food spending and rising construction and service costs.
NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said the March data highlight how cost pressures are reshaping household spending choices.
“Consumer spending rose 2.1 percent in March, driven by a sharp 33.5 percent increase in fuel spending following the fuel price surge,” Dr Auld said.
“Excluding fuel, spending still rose a solid 0.7 percent, supported by higher food spending and rising construction costs.”
Fuel spending was 25.7 percent higher over the year, with price growth outpacing spend per transaction in March, pointing to precautionary purchases and smaller refuelling top‑ups as prices rose.
“For now, consumers have absorbed higher fuel expenses with only a small impact on their broader spending,” Dr Auld said.
“However, there is clear underperformance among discretionary categories, particularly hospitality, travel and personal services.”
While discretionary goods spending remained relatively resilient, consumers began to scale back on discretionary services in March. Spending shifted toward non‑discretionary items, led by fuel, while categories such as cafes and restaurants, hotels and travel declined.
“We expect renewed cost of living pressures to continue to place ongoing pressure on household budgets and weigh on discretionary purchases,” Dr Auld said.
Consumer spending grew across all states and territories in March. South Australia and Queensland saw the strongest growth, while over the past year spending growth nationally has been driven primarily by essential categories, particularly utilities and fuel.
Click below to read the full report.
NAB Consumer Spend Trend March 2026 (PDF, 739KB)
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