The next move in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing remains uncertain, according to the latest NAB Economics RBA Watch.
09 June 2026 | 3 min read
14 May 2026
- Dwelling price growth slowed to 0.3% mom in April, the slowest monthly gain since January 2025. Dwelling prices are 9.8% higher over the year. Mid size capitals continued to outperform, while slowing was more evident in Sydney and Melbourne.
- Prices fell 0.6% mom in Sydney and Melbourne and combined with downward revisions, now show a starker loss of momentum. On a 3-month annualised basis, prices fell 3.7% in Sydney and 6.0% in Melbourne.
- Reforms to CGT and negative gearing reduce incentives for low yielding/high debt investment in established property. This is a benefit to broader financial stability, but will likely mean a small decline in house price growth.
- New housing loan commitment values fell 3.8% qoq in Q1, with declines across both owner‑occupier and investor lending. Despite this pullback, lending activity remains around 10% above its mid‑2022 peak.
- The rental market remains tight, with vacancy rates near record lows at 1.7% and advertised rents growth remains strong but edged lower to 5.7% on a 6 month annualised basis in April.
- Dwelling starts have lifted since late 2023, led by apartments, but starts continue to outpace completions amid challenging supply conditions. This has kept the construction pipeline elevated, with ~235k dwellings still under construction, around 35% above the pre-pandemic (2010-2019) average.
- Material input costs (as measured by the PPI) for detached housing construction rose 0.6% in Q1 and are 39% above pre-pandemic levels. These data largely pre-date the conflict. Construction purchase costs in the NAB Business Survey point to some renewed upward pressure.
Click below to read the full NAB Housing Monitor May 2026.
