NAB Housing Monitor – February 2026

Uncertainty is elevated and confidence has fallen, but the economy has shown resilience. Spending has held up and business conditions are in positive territory. Q1 CPI was slightly softer than expected but we see stronger underlying inflation coming through from Q2. We continue to see growth of 1.5% this year and a marginal improvement next year. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.7%. 

21 May 2026 | 5 min read

Today’s labour market data are softer than expected. Unemployment jumped to 4.5% in April (NAB and consensus 4.3%). These data can be volatile month to month, but this is a soft print, and one that challenges the RBA’s SoMP judgement of labour market resilience. NAB now expects the RBA to hike in August (previously June).

21 May 2026 | 2 min read

In the April Forward View Global note, NAB sees a moderate, negative, impact on global growth from the Iran war, assuming the Strait of Hormuz re-opens soon. If it does not, the growth consequences are likely to be far more consequential. 

20 May 2026 | 1 min