NAB Housing Monitor July 2026

Key Points

• National dwelling prices fell by 0.4% in June, which is the largest monthly decline since December 2022. This follows a downwardly revised 0.3% fall in May (previously recorded as flat).
• Housing demand has slowed following 75bps of interest rate rises and higher uncertainty surrounding the Budget’s tax changes. Reforms to CGT and negative gearing reduce investor incentives for low yielding/high debt investment in established property.
• The slowdown has been led by Sydney and Melbourne, where prices fell 1.2% and 1.0% mom, respectively. The pace of growth across mid-sized capitals has also slowed sharply, further underscored by large downward revisions, particularly for Perth and Brisbane.
• Our forecasts anticipate a 2% decline in dwelling prices in the 8 capitals over 2026. That is driven by 6-7% falls in Sydney and Melbourne and material slowing in mid-sized capitals. We see the risks skewed to a larger fall in prices.
• Nationally, the median time on market has edged higher to 31 days, with properties selling faster in Perth (13 days) and Brisbane (22 days).
• The rental market remains tight, with vacancy rates near record lows at 1.7%. Advertised rents growth is elevated at 5.8% on a 6m annualised basis.
• Dwelling starts have lifted since late 2023, led by apartments, but starts continue to outpace completions amid challenging supply conditions. This has kept the construction pipeline elevated, with ~235k dwellings still under construction, around 35% above the pre-pandemic (2010-2019) average.

Read the full NAB Housing Monitor July 2026.