NAB Chair addresses the AICD Australian Governance Summit 2026

The significant shifts we’ve all seen in the global economy in the past year confirm that we have entered a very different era. For years, we lived in an environment of low interest rates and abundant liquidity, global stability and global economic integration and growth. 

We are now in an environment of greater volatility in inflation and growth, and interest rates will remain higher than they have been for much of the past decade. At the same time, geopolitical forces are changing the global landscape.  

Trade fragmentation, conflicts, supply chain, energy security and strategic competition are all shaping economic outcomes alongside traditional drivers such as productivity and demographics.  

Geopolitical instability continues to present severe risks, as the war in the Middle East reminds us how quickly conditions can change. 

The challenge that we face is to be more agile, more aware of new and emerging risks and opportunities, more adaptable and more cautious.

This challenge extends well beyond banking. It goes to the heart of how Australia positions itself in the world.

Against this backdrop, it is important not to lose sight of Australia’s enduring strengths.

Australia remains an attractive place to invest and do business. We benefit from strong institutions, an independent central bank, a well-capitalised and well-regulated financial system, and the rule of law. 

We benefit from generally stable, pragmatic government and a tradition of policy continuity operating in a community that is still quite cohesive.

Australia is also richly resourced, with natural assets the world increasingly needs, from agriculture and energy, to critical minerals essential to the global transition to net zero.

In a world newly focused on resilience and security of supply, these advantages matter. But natural advantage alone is never sufficient. 

Among the strategic risks Australia must manage more deliberately is the concentration of economic activity.

Reliance on a narrow set of commodities, or a small number of trading partners, carries risk. Particularly in a world where geopolitics, trade relationships and demand patterns are increasingly volatile.

China remains critically important for Australia. At the same time, China’s economic transition, policy settings and geopolitical position introduce greater uncertainty for us.

One big risk for Australia in all this is failing to diversify. Deloitte Access Economics research, commissioned by NAB, estimated that without building new, competitive export markets, Australia could forgo $270 billion in exports by 2050 as global demand shifts.

Diversifying means broadening the range of what we export, moving further up the value chain, and positioning Australia to supply what the global economy will demand in years ahead, not just what it has relied on in the past.

This includes energy and also the services, advanced manufacturing, products and technology needed for a lower emission world. The global transition to net zero is both a climate imperative and an economic one.  

The same Deloitte analysis shows developing globally competitive lowemissions industries could deliver a $255 billion net increase in exports and lift GDP by $435 billion by 2050. 

Countries that adapt earlier will be better placed to compete. Those that do not, risk seeing traditional export markets erode over time without new markets to leverage. 

Closely linked to this is supply chain resilience. The pandemic and rising geopolitical tensions showed how exposed economies can be when critical inputs or logistics are highly concentrated offshore, particularly where we might be dependent on counterparties with competing strategic visions. 

Resilience is now a strategic economic issue. 

Diversifying supply, building capability where it makes sense, and remaining a trusted global partner will help reduce concentration risk and strengthen our longterm resilience.

Energy policy also remains fundamental.

As Australia transitions its energy system, access to reliable and affordable energy will be critical to meeting emissions goals, maintain competitiveness, support households, and enable investment. 

Energy and climate policy certainty gives investment certainty. Investments with 20–30-year lifespans need stability, not an on-again, off-again approach to emissions reduction. Energy capital will go where the opportunity is the most reliable. 

This needs to be settled to help Australians run their businesses, make decisions and plan for the future.

Economic outcomes do not exist in isolation from society.

Social cohesion continues as an economic variable with rising polarisation and inequality, domestically and globally. 

Social cohesion is still one of Australia’s greatest strategic assets.

When people believe the system is fair, that opportunity is broadly shared, and that institutions act responsibly, societies are more resilient to shocks.

This places a responsibility on all of us: government, business and financial institutions, to think beyond short-term outcomes. Cohesion is a foundation of growth so we simply cannot allow tragedies such as Bondi to fracture us as a nation.

For banks, this means acting fairly and reliably, lending responsibly, supporting customers through economic cycles and contributing to financial inclusion and economic participation. More broadly, it means recognising that long-term value creation depends as much on social licence as it does on financial performance.

Turning now to governance, the business environment is increasing in complexity and volatility. We have to adapt to new technologies and new risks.

In this environment, agility matters. But agility without strong governance is dangerous as established controls and processes may prove inadequate in the face of the changing environment.

Boards and executive teams are required to navigate competing demands, innovation and compliance, resilience and efficiency, global risk and local responsibility.  

Strong governance is not a constraint on performance. It is how we ensure that we are alert to threats to sustainable performance, particularly in uncertain times.  We need to be continually asking if our old ways of doing things are still appropriate for the changing world.

One important area of change, uncertainty and opportunity as referenced by Clara Shih at the summit this morning is Artificial Intelligence.

We need to see AI through the lens of past technological innovations. 

This is a continuation of change in technologies which first impacted banking in the 1960s.  AI will enable us to move away from routine, repetitive tasks and free our people to focus on what matters most – building relationships and helping customers make confident decisions.

But AI brings its own challenges.

I’ve just come back from a Board discussion last week that got us thinking about how we manage an AI agent as we would a person.  

How do we ensure that they meet their compliance obligations? How do we performance manage an AI agent?  How do we fit the AI agent into our accountability framework? These are some of the governance challenges.

As a Board, we’ve invested significant time deepening our understanding of technology, cyber risk and AI. We’ve spent time with colleagues, customers and stakeholders to stay connected to the communities we serve. We’ve also spent considerable time with management to ensure NAB has the right foundations and skills, so people thrive in a bank that’s fit for the future.

Looking at the Australian economy more broadly, the first part of 2026 has been healthy. However, Australia’s longer-term prosperity will be challenged by low levels of productivity growth unless decisive and clear action is taken. 

While there has been no shortage of discussion on productivity, the real stepchange needed is still yet to materialise. With the Federal Government signalling action in this year’s Budget, it is imperative to generate practical, actionable reforms that move beyond debate and lift productivity outcomes.

Without sustained productivity growth, it becomes increasingly difficult to lift living standards, fund essential services or manage the fiscal pressures of an ageing population. 

Productivity is the cumulative outcome of investment, skills, technology and innovation, including the responsible adoption of AI, infrastructure and regulation that enables growth.

A critical way to support productivity is looking at sensible and practical ways that regulation can be reduced or more proportionate. It is a challenge for NAB as a bank, but it is most acutely felt by our customers, particularly small businesses. Small businesses bear the brunt of this and usually without the resources to manage it. 

Analysis by the Business Council of Australia in late 2024 found that someone starting up a café would have had 37 different licensing requirements and regulations to comply with in one particular State. 

How does that quantum of requirements encourage business creation and support individual endeavour? 

I welcome the Productivity Commission’s recent recommendation for Government to target a $10 billion reduction in regulatory compliance and delay costs by 2030, supported by annual reporting, and I urge this to be adopted by the Federal Government.  

It would be worth noting how much new regulation has been brought in over the last two years while we have been talking about this.

Housing is another critical challenge.

Access to secure, affordable housing underpins workforce participation, mobility and confidence in the economy. When housing supply fails to keep pace with population growth and demand, the effects ripple well beyond households. They constrain labour markets, add to cost pressures for business, and ultimately weigh on productivity and growth.

Persistent supply constraints are a material economic issue, not just a social one. Addressing them requires coordinated action across planning, infrastructure, skills, work practices and investment settings to increase supply where people need to live and work. 

Without more progress on housing, Australia risks limiting the very growth, diversification and resilience we are seeking to build in this next phase of the economy. 

I appreciate that housing supply is a priority of the federal and state and territory governments. It is equally a priority for NAB. The scale of the problem requires everyone to move as fast as we can, and faster than we have. 

Tax reform also deserves renewed attention.

Australia’s tax system has served us well in many respects, but it must continue to evolve to support competitiveness, fairness and growth in a changing economy. 

The system we design today will shape the opportunities available to future generations. It must be much simpler and far more durable, not layering complexity or overloading it with too many objectives. There should be no sacred taxes within this consideration.

Looking back to when the GST was introduced, it received community support because it replaced a range of inefficient taxes with a simpler one and provided clarity about the trade-offs. 

For reform to succeed, Australians need to understand the benefit, not just the cost. 

None of these reforms are easy. All involve trade-offs. Delay carries its own costs, and those costs compound over time. 

So to conclude, Australia has faced moments of major economic transition before. We have succeeded when we have been willing to adapt, diversify and invest for the long-term.

The global environment is more uncertain. Old assumptions no longer hold. Concentration risk is rising. But Australia enters this new era from a position of strength.

This calls for strong governance and governance policies and processes to be refreshed to fit a changing world.

If we broaden our economic base, look beyond traditional exports, invest in productivity and capability, and preserve the social cohesion that underpins trust, Australia can continue to prosper, not despite global volatility – but because we are prepared for it.

Thank you.