Too much demand, not enough economy
- The economy looks to have maintained much of the momentum gained through mid-2025 and the unemployment rate remains low.
- A number of indicators point to the economy running up against capacity constraints and there is a risk that inflation pressures persist.
- With underlying inflation expected to track above 3% for most of 2026, we see the RBA lifting rates to 4.1% in May.
19 February 2026 | 2-3 minutes
