Uncertainty is elevated and confidence has fallen, but the economy has shown resilience. Spending has held up and business conditions are in positive territory. Q1 CPI was slightly softer than expected but we see stronger underlying inflation coming through from Q2. We continue to see growth of 1.5% this year and a marginal improvement next year. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.7%.
21 May 2026 | 5 min read