Australian dollar to fall to 68 cents in 2016

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National Australia Bank (NAB) Agribusiness has revised down its Australian dollar (AUD) forecast to be at 70 US cents by the end of year and to bottom out in Q1 2016 at 68 US cents (previously 71 US cents). The revision in NAB’s August Rural Commodities Wrap is in light of the recent depreciation of the Chinese Yuan, combined with the likely continuation of weak terms of trade.

General Manager of NAB Agribusiness Khan Horne said the expectation that the Australian currency will continue to weaken is good news for Australian agricultural producers and exporters.

“The AUD’s downward trend accelerated in August with the People’s Bank of China’s devaluation of the Yuan, combined with risks to the growth outlook in China.The continued weakness of the AUD means valuable support for local prices well into 2016,” Mr Horne said.

In the August Rural Commodities Wrapreport, NAB also revised up beef price forecasts to average 40 per cent higher than in 2014-15.

“There are signs that declining beef slaughter is likely to continue owing to a shortage of stock, which means the upside for prices is as high as it has ever been,” Mr Horne said.

“Our outlook for the beef industry is strong, with confidence underpinned by solid global fundamentals and strong beef prices in the year ahead.”

The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) continues its upward climb in record territory, breaking through the 550AUc/kg mark in late July to now stand at 564AUc/kg. Overall, the EYCI was up 9.5 per cent in July.

The NAB Rural Commodities Index rose a further 4.1 per cent in AUD terms in July, supported by a lower dollar and higher beef, fruit, domestic wheat and sugar prices. Overall the index was down 0.4 per cent in USD terms.

NAB’s Rural Commodities Index includes 28 commodities (wheat, barley, sorghum, rice, oats, canola, chick peas, field peas, lupins, wool, cotton, sugar, wine grapes, beef, lamb, pork, poultry, dairy, apples, bananas, oranges, mangoes, strawberries, broccoli, carrots, lettuce, potatoes and tomatoes). The index is weighted annually according to the gross value of production of each industry in Australia

Agribusiness View provides the latest insights from NAB Agribusiness. Visit nab.com.au/agriview to sign up as well as to find the contact details for your nearest NAB Agribusiness Manager.

Important Note: Any advice in this editorial has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Before acting on this advice, you should consider its appropriateness to you.

About NAB Agribusiness

National Australia Bank (NAB) Agribusiness is Australia’s leading Agribusiness Bank and has been supporting Australian farmers for more than 150 years. NAB employs more than 600 agribusiness banking specialists in 110 metropolitan and regional locations Australia-wide. With their local and industry knowledge, our Agribusiness team understand the unique financial and environmental needs of farmers and businesses beyond the farm gate – whether they provide inputs into agriculture or process, distribute or market primary produce. NAB also has a specialist Agribusiness Asia Desk to help Australian farmers make the most of the rapid growth in demand for high quality produce in Asia. We deliver a flexible range of agribusiness products and services by listening to and working with our customers, to tailor the best packages and advice for their businesses. For further information please visit www.nab.com.au/agribusiness.

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